> Download But Will the Planet Notice?: How Smart Economics Can Save the World, by Gernot Wagner

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You are one of seven billion people on Earth. Whatever you or I do personally―eat tofu in a Hummer or hamburgers in a Prius―the planet doesn't notice. In our confrontation with climate change, species preservation, and a planet going off the cliff, it is what several billion people do that makes a difference. The solution? It isn't science, politics, or activism. It's smarter economics.

The hope of mankind, and indeed of every living thing on the planet, is now in the hands of the dismal science. Fortunately, we've been there before. Economists helped crack the acid rain problem in the 1990's (admittedly with a strong assist from a phalanx of lawyers and activists). Economists have helped get lead out of our gas, and they can explain why lobsters haven't disappeared off the coast of New England but tuna is on the verge of extinction. More disquietingly, they can take the lessons of the financial crisis and model with greater accuracy than anyone else the likelihood of environmental catastrophe, and they can help save us from global warming, if only we let them.

• Sales Rank: #1071282 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Hill and Wang
• Published on: 2011-09-27
• Released on: 2011-09-27
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.27" h x .99" w x 6.25" l, 1.01 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 272 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review

“It's always a pleasure to read a confident, funny and convincing writer who promotes counter-intuitive conclusions. If you like the idea of an environmentalist who works for one of the nation's largest environmental groups making a full-throated argument against the Endangered Species Act . . . then But Will the Planet Notice?: How Smart Economics Can Save the World is the book for you.” ―Dan Shapley, The Daily Green (blog)

“Wagner's wry, witty prose brings rationality to an emotionally charged subject and urges us to take personal responsibility for the planet by demanding an economically sound solution to guiding market forces in the right direction, making it in our best interests to do the right thing.” ―Publishers Weekly

“If you want to understand how an economist thinks about the biggest challenge our planet has ever stumbled up against, this book is an awfully good place to start!” ―Bill McKibben, author of Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet

“Idealism will not shift the choices of billions of people as effectively as self-interest. Gernot Wagner has written a lucid and enjoyable exposition of the underlying economics. We must remove the incentives to treat scarce resources as if they were free. He respects the moral principles of the idealists who want to change behavior by precept alone. But, as an economist, he knows that if we want less of anything, including pollution, we must raise its price.” ―Martin Wolf, Financial Times

“This splendid book showcases why environmental economics is such an exciting field today. Who knew that an economist not named Krugman could write so well? I will buy my mom a copy.” ―Matthew E. Kahn, author of Climatopolis: How Our Cities Will Thrive in Our Hotter Future

“As the earth approaches runaway global warming, Gernot Wagner lays out clearly the moral and economic reasoning we will need to make the tough choices ahead. His intellect is powerful, his style is engaging and humorous. But he is also rigorous and persistent, and he will stay with you until you "get it." And that's what we need. He takes the most relevant insights of classical economics, behavioral economics, moral philosophy and even libertarian doctrine and fuses them into a consistent and brilliant analytic construct for thinking about the global environmental threats that face us.” ―Peter J. Goldmark, Jr., former chairman and CEO, International Herald Tribune

“Gernot Wagner underscores the ‘eco' in economics, showing how markets that have lifted millions out of poverty could lift our planet out of peril.” ―Fred Krupp, president of Environmental Defense Fund and author of Earth: The Sequel

“For more than thirty years, I've been waiting for a book that would accurately embody an economic perspective on environmental policy and clearly present it to a truly broad readership. At last, Gernot Wagner has done it, and done it with style! His explanations and commentaries are true to the underlying science and economics, and his prose makes this not just a very interesting read, but an immensely enjoyable one. Whether you are on the right or the left of the political spectrum--or stuck in the middle like me--this is a book that you should read, and will be glad you did!” ―Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School

About the Author

Gernot Wagner is an economist at the Environmental Defense Fund. He teaches at Columbia and graduated from both Harvard and Stanford. He doesn't eat meat, doesn't drive, and knows full well the futility of his personal choices.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
1

CUE THE ECONOMISTS

 
ECONOMICS 101

Ask around what caused the financial crisis, and the answer, absent expletives, will be some version of “wrong incentives.” The road signs guiding market forces pointed in the wrong direction. Wall Street wasn’t doing what was in everyone’s best interests. What’s good for Goldman Sachs turned out not to be all that good for America.
Shift your focus on what ails the planet, and the answer will be very much the same. “Wrong incentives” are as important here as they were in the financial crisis. Replace “Goldman” with “Exxon,” and you have everyone’s favorite environmental villain. They ravage the planet for their own gains, without regard for anyone else around them. Greedy bastards.
There is something to this idea, as knee-jerk as it might be. By now, “privatizing profits and socializing losses” has its own Wikipedia page. On Wall Street, that translates into “too big to fail.” If my bets pay off, I will get the fat year-end bonus. If they don’t, I will be on a one-way (business-class) flight back from the craps table in Vegas, and everyone else—you, government, society—is left with cleaning up the mess. Heads I win, tails you lose; or, the dirty underside of capitalism for the masses, and the gentle safety net of socialism for the corporate echelons.
The environment is in the same situation, caused by the same misguided incentives. Exxon, BP, and the like rake in record profits while enjoying dubious tax loopholes and special subsidies.1 When an oil platform in the Gulf explodes and entire fishing grounds go belly-up, everyone faces the consequences. And that says nothing about global warming, where literally everyone—all seven billion of us—is affected, the poor and disenfranchised most of all.
The risk calculus that capitalism was supposed to force risk takers to make, it turned out, was a hoax. It became instead a one-way street where those who controlled the wealth stood to make the gains, and those who carried the liability side of the planet’s balance sheet were expected to clean up after them.
Waiting in the hope that corporate executives will be shamed or enlightened into giving up loopholes, forgoing subsidies, and turning corporations into charities is a fool’s game. Greed—capitalism—is not the problem, and vilifying any company that turns a profit is ludicrous. That’s its appointed purpose, and, like it or not, it’s the single most effective organizing principle of modern society. I am not saying capitalists are doing God’s work; they just work to feed their families and bank accounts, like the rest of us.
You and I are rich and can enjoy the pleasures of reading and writing books because of it. If you read this in any kind of electronic form, or aren’t afraid of losing loved ones to typhoid, cholera, or the plague, or have ever sat in a car, train, or plane, you will certainly appreciate the fact that capitalism didn’t stop its ascendancy around the time Gutenberg printed his first Bibles. We don’t want to stop market forces, even if we could. We want to work with—not against—them.
The solution is clear: put the right incentives in place. Or, if you care for more sophisticated academic parlance: internalize the externalities.
Measure how much damage each and every action does, put a dollar value on it, and set the appropriate price. Don’t like trillions of dollars being sent around the globe every day at the stroke of a button? Introduce financial transaction taxes.2 Don’t like treating the atmosphere like a free sewer? Put a price on carbon.
That’s a wrap, people. Two problems solved at once. Future financial crises averted; environmental crises gone. I’ll save myself the trouble of writing the rest of the book, and you can get back to worrying about whatever occupied you before the recession and an increasingly unstable planet crowded those worries out. We even save a few trees or iPad charges in the process. Win-win-win.
If only it were that simple.
POLITICAL ECONOMICS 101
In 1990, Congress, in its finite wisdom, capped total economic damage payments for any one offshore oil spill at $75 million.3 This despite the fact that no one in either chamber apparently knew what it meant to link these kinds of limits to ever-rising prices—a.k.a. inflation—or that $75 million wasn’t all that much even then. Worse, perhaps they all did and still voted for the final bill 99–0 in the Senate and 360–0 in the House. Talk about a slam dunk. When it comes to contradicting Economics 101, bipartisanship, apparently, is all the rage.
It’s not hard to concoct conspiracy theories on how Big Oil controls the political machine. Yes, politicians do what voters want them to do. If not, they get voted out of office. That would be Democracy 101. But vested interests clearly have a stake in the status quo, and it doesn’t get much bigger than Big Oil, which comprises some of the most profitable companies in history.
Surprise, political “leaders” aren’t always driven by deeply held convictions. Reaching the masses requires having a megaphone, and megaphones cost money. Lots of it. By now, U.S. national and even some state-level elections run in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Little wonder politicians say what big donors want them to say. Money speaks and votes. Politics 101.
During the 2008–10 congressional fight to enact a comprehensive climate law, Big Oil, King Coal, and climate deniers of all stripes spent around $500 million against sensible climate action, outspending environmental campaigners, renewable-energy interests, and the like to the tune of ten to one. Never mind that there is some reason to believe that even the United States may have a “climate majority.”4 Careful polling unearths three-quarters of Americans who say that the climate is changing and that humans are the cause of it. Over 85 percent say they want limits on how much air pollution businesses are allowed to emit. Still, recent poll results show clear trends toward increased polarization and politicization of century-old scientific facts. When Al Gore says global warming is happening, you no longer care what basic physics and chemistry say. You care about whether or not you would vote for Gore for other reasons. One key factor in all of this is money. Those who have it can sway the malleable masses. Those who don’t can’t. By the time the Senate all but killed climate legislation in the summer of 2010, dirty money had prevailed.
Amazingly, that’s not always the case. The same Congress that voted 99–0 and 360–0 to cap damages for offshore oil spills also voted 89–10 and 401–25 to cap sulfur dioxide pollutants that cause acid rain. That’s small potatoes compared with capping carbon dioxide emissions, but it has shown how unusual coalitions between environmental activists and business interests can form to pass a strong market-based law. More recently, in 2010, venture capitalists and others with stakes in a greener future outspent and out-campaigned opponents of a comprehensive climate bill in California to the tune of three to one. Thirty million dollars for keeping a climate bill on the books; $10 million to suspend it.5 In the end proponents of the bill prevailed. It’s not the first time that Sacramento showed Washington the way on environmental issues. Perhaps there’s some hope after all.
There are other ways to change minds. How about a global campaign to right the wrongs? Let’s put “Internalize Externalities” on bumper stickers. Stage teach-ins at the local parish. Organize the Million Internalizers March on Washington. I can see Madonna lining up for the London concert and Nepalese Sherpas spelling out those two all-important words on the dwindling snows of the Himalayas, in biodegradable paint. Activism 101.
That’s clearly a crucial component: raise awareness, start a movement. Convince everyone around you to eat locally grown food—slowly—and quickly plant a million trees in the Sahel. Concerts help, too. Madonna even wrote a new song for Live Earth in 2007. And we have seen Sherpas in action as well. A group of them joined thousands of others in holding up “350” signs all over the world as part of a campaign to limit greenhouse gas concentrations to 350 parts per million in the atmosphere, what’s required to stabilize the climate and stop sea levels from rising too far. (We are now at above 390 and counting.)
Activism is important—I’m in one of those “350” pictures—and lots of crucial things are happening on the ground: from American teens being miles ahead of their parents in their awareness of how they are changing the planet, to a new generation of Indian youth leaders realizing that environment and development ought to go hand in hand. There’s hope, lots of it. Sadly, we don’t have another decade or two until those young leaders come of age. And even once they do, and this is the crucial point, the solution will be very much the same as what we have on deck.
That answer is clear: get comfortable with the idea that we ought to be using markets and market forces, and use the very people—you, me, all of us—whose greed and everyday behavior got us into the mess in the first place to get us out of it. It’s time to substitute the right incentives for the wrong ones and set a new default path for the planet.
ACCOUNTING 101
Sadly, we have known about this fundamental problem of misguided incentives at least since Madonna was dancing circles around her fellow third graders—and the problem didn’t just appear in obscure academic writings. Robert F. Kennedy lamented on March 18, 1968, in the first major speec...

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13 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
A great economics-based guide to save the planet
By Rick
I really enjoyed this book. I've read about +10 books lately on economics, the environment, the food industry, politics and books that try to combine some of these topics. Of these, Wagner's is one of the best. It would be great for anyone who wants an economics theory-in-practice-based understanding of environmental problems and their possible economics-based solutions.

Wagner focuses on the tension between free markets and the environment. On the one hand, we owe all the luxuries and technological progress of our 21st C lifestyles to a certain economic structure (free markets), and on the other hand our collective lifestyles (especially the more 'advanced' among the global population) is leading the world into environmental ruin. We love our lifestyles, we love the environment, and yet something's gotta give sooner or later. Aware of this fact, the knee-jerk eco-enlightened reaction is for us as individuals to minimize our carbon footprint (think, No Impact Man)--and that's hard to do, and most of us don't even know which of our choices have the biggest impact, and the entire structure of our lifestyles limits our eco-friendly options, not that it really matters b/c the planet won't notice. Although a book would be nice that shows us all the relative eco-consequences of my day-to-day individual choices, Wagner does not write such a book--he has a bigger fish to fry (or rescue!). Instead, he focuses on the kinds of changes that would need to happen in OUR way of life, as a whole, as a society, at the level of countries and the world. That is the only way real change can happen, that's the only way the planet will 'notice'. This is a big picture (structural)problem and it requires a big picture (structural) solution. What solutions can economics provide? That's what I take to be the guiding question of the book. He's exploring the kinds of eco-problems/economic structure solutions that address the big picture.

Wagner presents a number of case studies of various environmental problems, their origins (political, economic, technological) and what we can do about them. There are various environmental problems, not just one (and that's why this is NOT just a book about cap-and-trade), and so there is no silver bullet. Wagner introduces the reader to the economist's toolkit--of models, incentive structures, etc. Some of these case studies show us how bad economics (or bad policies) made things worse, and how the right kind of policies can save the day. Wagner does what good economists are supposed to do, as Mankiw starts his own economics book and as Wagner himself cites--'people face trade offs'. Wagner tackles various environmental problems, past and present, and shows how some policies failed, others succeeded, and why. In short, he articulates what the options are and what the trade offs are for those various options. Sometimes there are win-win scenarios, sometimes a lose-lose, and more often than not, a win-lose, where we 'win' in the short run (by enjoying an eco-unfriendly lifestyle) and the environment 'loses' in the long run. Traditional economic structures have tended towards this win-lose scenario via privatized profits and socialized costs (which will ultimately lead to a lose-lose), and Wagner's job (or hope) is to show how we can use better economic structures/policies to create win-wins, so that the trade offs are not so devastating for our lifestyles (as a whole) or the environment.

Now what I wrote above deliberately does not go into any one specific environmental problem. And that's the point of my review. I want to show the general structure of how Wagner approaches the economics/environment tension, and why there's no silver bullet. His structure is clear, the strategy effective, and the exposition illuminating.

I finished the book feeling a bit more optimistic and less cynical about economists' abilities to find solutions to the most pressing environmental problems. There is not a *necessary* opposition or conflict between (relatively) free markets and the environment. I'm still pessimistic that policy makers will not implement the very best ideas--and Wagner discusses these obstacles--but at least there is hope. With Wagner's help, that hope has a bit more intellectual grounding as I continue to read and chat about economics, the environment and various policy debates.

18 of 20 people found the following review helpful.
Great read!
By Public Optimization
But will the planet notice is a humorous, thoughtful, and honest take on tackling the world's environmental issues. Wagner shows that smart policies and markets can do far more to address the serious climate issues that the well-meaning instincts of the individual conservationists. He admits that often, efforts of "green living" are outweighed by a modern lifestyle including driving and flying. Overall, I found "But Will the Planet Notice" to be a very enjoyable read which offers serious advice in a way that everyone can understand. Highly recommended.

15 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Like Bill Bryson? Malcolm Gladwell? Meet Gernot Wagner
By T. P. Olson
This book is spectacular. Though the author has a Ph.D from Harvard, he writes like a cross between Malcolm Gladwell and Bill Bryson. While his topic -- how to harness economics to save the world from environmental disaster -- could scarcely be more serious -- his writing is witty, graceful, and compelling.

Wagner knows many of the economists whose theories he discusses in the book, and brings not only their ideas but their (always colorful) personalities to life. Along the way, he educates us about some of the unfortunate paradoxes of environmental regulation. It turns out, for example, that the Endangered Species Act often has the unhappy consequence of leading private landowners to destroy anything that could possibly be a habitat for an endangered species -- and thus make their land much less valuable commercially. Luckily, Wagner has a good solution.

Wagner's overall insight is that while individual action (like using energy-efficient windows) is a great idea, the only real solution to environmental problems is to harness economics to induce everyone -- not just a well-intentioned minority -- to do what needs to be done. His arguments and evidence in support of that point are clear, and hard to argue with.

This is a must-read for anyone who cares about the environment. Luckily, it's also a pleasure to read.

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• Sales Rank: #416783 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Hill n Wang Pub
• Published on: 1987-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 226 pages

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The 2007 proxy season was impacted by significant new disclosure requirements for executive and director compensation, related party transactions, director independence and other governance matters. Although the 2008 proxy season should be less burdensome, new guidance from the SEC along with a few new rules will impact preparations for 2008 annual meetings. Executive compensation will continue to be the main focus for 2008 annual meeting disclosures. During 2007, several hundred companies received comment letters from the SEC regarding their executive compensation and related disclosures, and in October 2007, the SEC reported that it had completed its review of such disclosures of over 350 public companies. The SEC noted that two principal themes emerged from this review. First, the Compensation Discussion and Analysis needs to be focused on "how and why" a company arrives at specific executive compensation decisions and policies. Second, the SEC staff wants improvement in how compensation disclosures are presented, including the use of plain English and improved organizational techniques such as the use of executive summaries and tables and charts. In addition, under the SEC's new e-proxy rules, large accelerated filers will need to determine whether to proceed with delivery under the "notice and access" model, which will mean new disclosures and new deadlines for completion of their proxy statement. New rules and interpretive guidance regarding management's report on internal control over financial reporting will also require careful scrutiny. Finally, companies will want to carefully scrutinize shareholder proposals in light of the SEC's November 2007 amendment to Rule 14a-8(i)(8). This amendment clarifies that companies may omit from their proxy materials any proposal that relates to a nomination or an election for membership on the company's board of directors or a procedure for such nomination or election

• Sales Rank: #15940444 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Kluwer Law Intl
• Published on: 2008-03-12
• Original language: English
• Binding: Paperback
• 928 pages

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Kessie thinks she's overweight. She's five foot four and ninety-eight pounds. Kessie has anorexia nervosa.

• Sales Rank: #3809969 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Turtleback Books: A Division of Sanval
• Published on: 1989-03
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: .91" h x 4.20" w x 7.16" l,
• Binding: School & Library Binding
• 256 pages

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0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Good reas
By Amazon Customer
It was Very relatable and real. Only critique I have is that it seemed as if it was not proof read there were some grammatical errors but overall it was good read

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Sad, but very interesting
By Kelley A. Bergamo
I read this book in one night. I really liked it. I still cannot imagine doing to myself what Kessa did to herself. It's not an act to get attention, it's a real disease. Anyone who has it really needs help. I think that Kessa had a lot of courage. There was no way I could have stayed awake during the chest tube procedure. It was so graphic that I almost fainted. This author is very talented. He really gives an insight into the minds of these young girls.

10 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Disappointing
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My first disappointment upon receiving this book is to learn that it is fictional. Clearly, that was my fault for not reading more carefullly before I ordered, but I still wanted to mention that, lest anyone make the same mistake I did.

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I don't agree with the reviewers who say this book is going to "teach" someone to be anorexic. Odds are, anyone who's reading this book for tips probably knows what thy're doing anyway.

This book, however, is absolutely dreadful in terms of writing, character development, and plot. Please, please, please, save your money. This book is so not worth it.

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In 1956 two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory―the basis of computers and the Internet―to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible.

Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenonally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge.

Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market―and Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

• Sales Rank: #78598 in Books
• Brand: Poundstone, William
• Published on: 2006-09-19
• Released on: 2006-09-19
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.17" h x 1.11" w x 5.51" l, .82 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 386 pages

Amazon.com Review
Fortune's Formula is a fascinating study of the connections between such seemingly unrelated topics as gambling, information theory, stock investing, and applied mathematics. The story involves the stunning brainpower of men such as MIT professor Claude Shannon, who single-handedly invented information theory, the science behind the Internet and all digital media; Ed Thorpe; and John Kelly of Bell Laboratories, who developed the "Kelly criterion," a now-legendary investment strategy for maximizing growth while controlling risk. Initially, Shannon and Thorpe took Kelly's theory to Las Vegas and applied it to roulette and blackjack. Later, they took it to Wall Street and cleaned up--Shannon made a personal fortune while Thorpe created the highly successful hedge firm Princeton-Newport Partners. They both discovered that Kelly's system was particularly effective when applied to arbitrage (minute price differences that result from market inefficiencies). As Poundstone ably demonstrates, the merits of Kelly's criterion are still hotly debated today.

Poundstone has a tendency to meander in his writing, but his asides are so revealing and interesting that they add, rather than detract, from the narrative. The book also includes a cast of fascinating and colorful characters as varied as Ivan Boesky, Warren Buffet, Rudolph Giuliani, and notorious mobsters such as Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky. In explaining the lasting impact of the work done by Shannon, Thorpe, and Kelly, Poundstone even explains Kelly's system for those wishing to follow his formula, offering readers both theoretical and practical lessons. Whether viewed as a how-to guide or straight scientific and financial history, Fortune's Formula proves an entertaining and illuminating analysis of "the most successful gambling system of all time." --Shawn Carkonen

From Publishers Weekly
In 1961, MIT mathematics professor Ed Thorp made a small Vegas fortune by "counting cards"; his 1962 bestseller, Beat the Dealer, made the phrase a household word. With Claude Shannon, the father of information theory, Thorp next conquered the roulette tables. In this prosaic but fascinating cultural history, Poundstone (How Would You Move Mt. Fuji?) tells not only what they did but how they did it. For roulette, Poundstone shows, Thorp and Shannon used a betting scheme invented by Shannon's Bell Labs colleague John Kelly, eventually applying Kelly's technique to investing, resulting in long-term records of extraordinary return with low risk. (Thorp revealed the secret in 1966's Beat the Market, but investors proved harder to persuade than blackjack players.) Many other characters figure into Poundstone's entertaining saga: a forgotten French mathematician, two Nobel Prize–winning economists who declared war on the Kelly criterion, Rudy Giuliani, assorted mobsters, and winners and losers in all types of investing and gambling games. The subtitle is not a tease: the book explains and analyzes Kelly's system for turning small advantages into great wealth. The system works, but requires unusual amounts of patience, discipline and courage. The book is good fun for the rest of us.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review

“Seldom have true crime and smart math been blended together so engagingly.” ―The Wall Street Journal

“An amazing story that gives a big idea the needed star treatment . . . Fortune's Formula will appeal to readers of such books as Peter L. Bernstein's Against the Gods, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, and Roger Lowenstein's When Genius Failed. All try to explain why smart people take stupid risks. Poundstone goes them one better by showing how hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, for one, could have avoided disaster by following the Kelly method.” ―Business Week (four stars)

“'Fortune's Formula' may be the world's first history book, gambling primer, mathematics text, economics manual, personal finance guide and joke book in a single volume. Poundstone comes across as the best college professor you ever hand, someone who can turn almost any technical topic into an entertaining and zesty lecture.” ―The New York Times Book Review

Most helpful customer reviews

349 of 365 people found the following review helpful.
Ed Thorp is a true investment and math genius.
By Abacus
This is an excellent book about the discovery of the Kelly formula that is unknown outside gambling. This story has three protagonists. Two of them were scientists working at Bell Labs: Claude Shannon, a genius polymath who developed information theory; and John Kelly, a maverick genius, who is directly responsible for the development of Kelly's formula. The third one is a brilliant MIT mathematician, Ed Thorp.

Ed Thorp tested the Kelly formula in both gambling and investing. Also, he came up with an options formula before Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. His formula missed a risk-free rate component due to the structure of the market at the time. As a result, Ed Thorp remained in obscurity while Black and Scholes became famous.

Ed Thorp succeeded in deriving superior returns in both gambling and investing. But, it was not so much because of Kelly's formula. He developed other tools to achieve superior returns. In gambling, Ed Thorp succeeded at Black Jack by developing the card counting method. He just used intuitively Kelly's formula to increase his bets whenever the odds were in his favor. Later, he ran a hedge fund for 20 years until the late 80s and earned a rate of return of 14% handily beating the market's 8% during the period. Also, his hedge fund hardly lost any value on black Monday in October 1987, when the market crashed by 22%. The volatility of his returns was far lower than the market. He did this by exploiting market inefficiencies using warrants, options, and convertible bonds. The Kelly formula was for him a risk management discipline and not a direct source of excess return.

Ed Thorp's career as a hedge fund manager was temporarily cut short. This was due to his fund being involved in a tax-avoiding securities scheme with Drexel Burnham. Thorp was not guilty; but, the fund had to be liquidated. The author stated many of Milken wrongdoings. One included getting large equity positions attached to the junk bonds he issued. The companies thought they were issuing convertible bonds. However, the equity component went straight into Milken's pocket as he sold the bonds to investors as high yield debt with no equity attached.

Ed Thorp rebounded from this mishap and started a second hedge fund in 1994. Thorp continued reaping above market return. As the author states, Ed Thorp's genius consists in "...his continuous ability to discover new market inefficiencies ... as old ones played out." Ed Thorp closed this second fund in 2002. He is now independently exploring inefficiencies in gambling.

Claude Shannon amassed large wealth by recording one of the best investment records. His performance had little to do with Kelly's formula. Between 1966 and 1986, his record beat even Warren Buffet (28% to 27% respectively). Shannon strategy was similar to Buffet. Both their stock portfolios were concentrated, and held for the long term. Shannon achieved his record by holding mainly three stocks (Teledyne, Motorola, and HP). The difference between the two was that Shannon invested in technology because he understood it well, while Buffet did not.

John Kelly was a chain smoking, gun collecting brilliant physicist. He died young at 41 of an aneurysm. He worked closely with Shannon at Bell Labs. Besides being a charismatic character the author does not write much about his life compared to the other two (Shannon and Thorp).

The Kelly formula is Edge/Odds (as explained on page 72). In investment circles, this formula is not always useful because it is hard to quantify your Edge (value of proprietary information). However, Kelly's formula has intuitive practical implications. It entails you should focus on an investment internal rate of return (IRR) instead of its average yearly return. The IRR is always less. Another implication is that higher risk is not always compensated by higher return. There is an optimal risk level beyond which risk taking becomes destructive. The author mentions the Long Term Capital Management as a case in point.

I recommend other excellent similar books: "Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance" by Perry Mehrling, and "When Genius Failed. The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management" by Roger Lowenstein. Both these books describe luminaries in finance and investment fields who were often in contact with Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon. Another excellent book is Sylvia Nasar's "A Beautiful Mind" about John Nash, the Game Theorist.

52 of 54 people found the following review helpful.
The Ongoing Epic of the Kelly Criterion for Risk Management.
By mirasreviews
"Fortune's Formula" tells the story of the Kelly Criterion -through the experiments, ideas, wins, and losses of those who have espoused it and who have derided it, at race tracks, black jack tables, sports books, and, finally, on Wall Street. The Kelly Criterion is a risk management formula published in 1956 by Bell Labs information theorist John Kelly, Jr. that dictates how much of your bankroll you should bet based on your edge divided by the odds so that you will have zero risk of ruin no matter how bad your luck is, while increasing wealth faster than any other betting system. It does not address what bets you should make, which is another matter entirely. Instead of writing a simple analysis of the Kelly Criterion, author William Poundstone brings this story alive by relating the histories of key figures who have used, promoted, or criticized the Kelly Criterion: information theorists, economists, traders, gamblers, and gangsters. Some readers may find this approach unfocused and unnecessary. But I think the personalities lend "Fortune's Formula" an epic quality and place the Kelly Criterion firmly in the context of real life, with real consequences, as opposed to the realm of abstruse theories that never leave the halls of academe.

The men whom "Fortune's Formula" casts as protagonists are Claude Shannon, the MIT scholar who invented information science and who amassed a small fortune as a buy-and-hold investor, typically making 28% per year on a small portfolio, and Ed Thorpe, author of 1962's gambling classic "Beat the Dealer", 1967's "Beat the Market", co-founder of Princeton-Newport Partners fund (1969-1988) and founder of Ridgeline Partners (1994-2002) quant fund. Ed Thorpe's transformation from MIT egghead to black jack sharp to Wall Street wizard in an ongoing theme, as Thorpe is an immensely successful advocate of the Kelly Criterion -and he is still alive. There is unfortunately little information on John Kelly, because he died in 1965 at the age of 41. The key Kelly challenger is 1970 Nobel Laureate economist Paul Samuelson, who probably overstates his case in calling the Kelly Criterion a "complete swindle" when the point of disagreement seems to be the concept of "utility" in long-tern outcome. Whatever one thinks of Samuelson's outspoken arrogance, he is certainly entertaining. Mobster Manny Kimmel makes an appearance, as do traders Ivan Boesky, Michael Milken, and John Meriwether, as well as numerous information theorists.

William Poundstone obviously has a point of view. He is an advocate of the Kelly Criterion, believing that it produces better results than any other betting system over the long haul while withstanding even the most unlikely confluences of catastrophe that have a way of manifesting themselves periodically. He doesn't support efficient market hypothesis. He thinks people can, and have, made money consistently on the stock market. -But that you need a darned good method of managing risk to do it, a better method than Value at Risk reports. "Fortune's Formula"'s fascination is not only in its history of the Kelly Criterion, but in the realization that a risk management formula has so many seemingly disparate applications. As Poundstone says, "The idea pops up in the strangest places."

39 of 41 people found the following review helpful.
Mobsters, mathematicians and economists
By Grouchy Smurf
I found this to be a very exciting and informative book. Once I started, I was hooked: I couldn't put it down because I wanted to learn more -- not just about the formula but all the intellectual controversy surrounding it and the cast of characters involved. This book tells the story of the 'Kelly criterion' and how certain people used it to beat the casinos and earn consistently above-average returns in the stock market. The cast of characters extend from famous organized crime figures (Bugsy, Longy Zwillman, etc.) to Claude Shannon, father of information theory, to Milken, the junk bond king, and many more.

You can view this book as a study on the history of an idea, as a study of the financial markets, or as a social study of gambling and investing. There are many faces to it. I wouldn't say it is a book on finance, or a book on history, but a bit of everyhting really. It definitely is not a book on 'how to beat the market', don't look for that here. The book does give a good explanation of the Kelly formula, in my opinion, but the whole controversy surrounding it, as well as the story of Ed Thorpe, was much more interesting for me.

If you are interested in finance or financial history, math, or gambling, or how ideas evolve and why certain ideas are better known than others, you should read this book. I think that mathematically sophisticated readers can be a bit disappointed because there is no rigorous treatment of Kelly criterion. But the basic ideas of CAPM, efficient markets hypothesis, the essence of Kelly formula, and random walk, are explained quite succintly and clearly, in my opinion.

The only problem I had with the book was that the author went off in tangents quite a bit, which sometimes distracted from the main story. For instance, right after the description of Kelly formula, there is a discussion of Edgar Hoover's horseracing bets. It seems that the author had a lot of material, may be too much, that he did not want to cut, but also did not know where to put. That detracted from coherence somewhat, which is why I am giving this 4 stars. But at the end of the day, I am feeling better for having read the book -- I learned a lot, and it was an easy and interesting read. Definitely worth the money and time.

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An accessible graphic introduction to evolution for the most science-phobic reader

Illustrated by the brilliant duo Kevin Cannon and Zander Cannon, this volume is written by the noted comic author and professor of biology Jay Hosler. Evolution features the same characters introduced in the highly regarded The Stuff of Life: A Graphic Guide to Genetics and DNA, now here to explain the fundamentals of the evolution of life on earth. On the heels of explaining to his planetary leader the intricacies of human genetics in The Stuff of Life, the intrepid alien scientist Bloort-183 is charged in this sequel with covering the wider story of evolution. Using the same storytelling conceit that Plenty magazine declared "so charming that you won't even notice you've absorbed an entire scientific field" and that caused Seed to pick The Stuff of Life as a best book of 2008, Evolution brilliantly answers Wired's demand, "What's the solution to America's crisis in science education? More comic books!"

Evolution, the most accessible graphic work on this universally studied subject, takes the reader from earth's primordial soup to the vestigial structures, like the coccyx and the male nipple, of modern humans. Once again, the award-winning illustrations of the Cannons render the complex clear and everything cleverly comedic. And in Hosler, Evolution has an award-winning biology teacher whose science comics have earned him a National Science Foundation grant and an interview on NPR's Morning Edition.

• Sales Rank: #176366 in Books
• Published on: 2011-12-20
• Released on: 2011-12-20
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.95" h x .48" w x 5.98" l, .58 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 160 pages

From Publishers Weekly
Featuring the same amusing characters as those found in Mark Schultz's The Stuff of Life: A Graphic Guide to Genetics and DNA, Hosler's sequel does for natural selection what its predecessor did for human genetics. The intrepid Glargalian scientist, Bloort 183, has returned and serves as the book's principal narrator. This time he has invited King Floorsh 727 and Prince Floorsh 418 on a tour of the newly opened Glargalian Holographic Museum of Earth Evolution. Hosler (Clan Apis; Sandwalk Adventures) is also a professor of biology and provides readers with much more than a simple graphic primer on evolution. With the Cannons' wonderful illustrations providing a visual anchor, Hosler discusses everything from the atomic to the planetary, from endosymbiosis to mass extinction. The book, like its predecessor, may be too dense with information--for instance, the 54 million years of the Cambrian period is covered in a mere six panels. However, readers should find at the end of their journey through Bloort's Holographic Museum that they've learned a tremendous amount about earth's evolution, and have had more than their fair share of amusement in doing so. (Jan.) (c)
(c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.

From Booklist
Back to the watery world of the sea-cucumber-like species Squinch for another course in the elements of life on earth. In The Stuff of Life (2009), Squinch scientist Bloort 183 convinced King Floorsh 727, by explaining genetics, that becoming sexual may be how the asexual Squinch can avoid impending extinction. Now he continues the exposition by disclosing the wonders wrought by genetics plus time. For this lesson, the king is joined by the heir apparent, precocious little Prince Floorsh 418, whose good questions and inspired intuitions keep Bloort on his . . . are they tentacles? It’s hard to imagine instructional science cartooning better than this. The Cannons (who are unrelated, by the way) keep every creature they’re called upon to depict—be it cell, dinosaur, dodo, or Darwin—perky but never ridiculous, and Hosler, like Mark Schultz in Stuff, balances science and humor superbly. Complete with glossary, this delightful book seems ideal for nonscientists who want to entertainingly brush up their knowledge of evolution as well as for students from middle school on up. --Ray Olson

Review

“It is not often that the books I am asked to review go missing. After hours of searching, I found the errant item, with the spine cracked, in my teenage son's room--an otherwise book-free zone. I can offer no higher recommendation . . . I am not sure why comic books make words like alpha-proteobacteria less daunting, but they do. Every classroom should have this book.” ―New Scientist

“Written by a nonalien biologist and illustrated by a talented (and nonrelated) duo in cartoon format, this book is funny, fun, and authoritative, and includes talking mitochondria and a charming song-and-dance routine by a male bowerbird seeking to be sexually selected.” ―Dolly Setton, Natural History Magazine

“The most accessible graphic work on this universally studied subject.” ―Ian Paulsen, The Guardian blog

“It's hard to imagine instructional science cartooning better than this.” ―Booklist

“If you like comics, you'll like this book. If you're interested in evolution, you'll like it even better. It's got a lot of information presented with a lot of fun. Ideal for high school and college students and teachers, and anyone who wants to enjoy the story of evolution.” ―Kevin Padian, President, National Center for Science Education

“From obsequious extraterrestrials to s'mores-eating early humans, this serious comic book manages to be fun and entertaining as well as accurate. (Maybe not about ancestral marshmallows, but readers will sort out the humor and snark from the science!) The story of evolution on Earth has rarely been presented in quite so entertaining a manner.” ―Eugenie C. Scott, Executive Director, National Center for Science Education

“Biology is a dynamic subject and I am always looking for new ways to reach my teenage students. Evolution was an excellent way to reinforce the concepts we cover in class. The graphic novel was written and illustrated in such a way that automatically grabbed the students' interest. Students learn best when they are having fun in the midst of it. This entertaining and engaging book makes learning enjoyable.” ―Bertha Vasquez, biology teacher, G.W. Carver Middle School, Miami, FL

Most helpful customer reviews

61 of 64 people found the following review helpful.
Witty, engaging, and educational.
By Saganite
Using the same framing device as The Stuff of Life: A Graphic Guide to Genetics and DNA (aliens discuss the subject, giving an "outsider's" perspective and an excuse for lots of explanation and examples), "Evolution" depicts the theory using historical snippets, wise and wonderful illustrations, and cutting-edge information. While the target audience might be the 10- to 16-year-old set, this middle-aged man, well-versed in evolutionary science basics, found a lot to love in this book. For one thing, it's just super-cute a lot of the time. And while technically I didn't learn anything really new in it, seeing ideas I already grasped presented in fresh, captivating ways makes them feel new again.

I suppose that's what "Evolution" does for me. If books like this existed when I was a kid, I didn't know about them, and I spent benighted decades preferring magical answers to actual science. This book, with its great information and frankly kind of juvenile presentation, helps make me feel more like a kid again, making old discoveries for a first time. That's some real magic.

24 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
A good read for children
By Supernova
It's a comic book explaining how evolution works, in a story that will intrigue children while teaching them. An excerpt from the book can be seen in this Scientific American article: [...]

6 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Engaging, funny, informative
By Anonymous
This is a great book for anyone who is interested in learning more about how the world around them works, but is daunted (or bored) by the more traditional textbooks of the classroom. Through its narrative framework and captivating illustrations, this book makes the more technical, elusive details of biological processes and evolutionary mechanisms relatable, imaginable, and ultimately knowable. It's packed with information but fun to read. Definitely worth it.

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^^ PDF Download American Negro Poetry: An Anthology (American Century)From Hill and Wang

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With 200,000 copies in print, this anthology has for decades been seen as a fundamental collection of African-American verse. Bontemps (1902-73), an important figure during and after the Harlem Renaissance, author of more than 25 novels, and longtime librarian at Fisk University, last revised this classic anthology just before his death, adding such crucial new voices as Audre Lorde, Nikki Giovanni, and Bob Kaufman, among others.

This edition, issued in 1996, reprints the poems in Bontemps's revised volume along with updated biographical notes. Nearly seventy poets are represented, their works indexed by both author and title.

• Sales Rank: #1922842 in Books
• Published on: 1995-12-31
• Released on: 1995-12-31
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.50" h x .58" w x 5.50" l, .80 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 256 pages

Review
“[Bontemps's] most distinctive works are ringing affirmations of the human passion for freedom and the desire for social justice inherent in us all. Arnold Rampersad called him the conscience of his era and it could be fairly added that his tendency to fuse history and imagination represents his personal legacy to a collective memory.” ―Charles L. James, The Oxford Companion to African American Literature (on the life and work of Arna Bontemps, editor of American Negro Poetry)

About the Author

Arna Bontemps (1902-1973), produced more than twenty-five novels, anthologies, children's books, and histories of black life, including the novel God Sends Sunday and The Story of the Negro. Bontemps's later years were spent at Fisk University as chief librarian and writer-in-residence.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Beautiful
By joyintheend
What a great complications of poems and prose. Such a diverse group of writers. This book paints a clear picture of pain, loss, celebration, and love in times where little hope could be found. For all people interested in black history, this is a must read.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Harvey C. Jones
The book was good and I liked it because it was simple.

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Five Stars
By Tammy Winslow
Excellent piece of literature

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FOR USE IN SCHOOLS AND LIBRARIES ONLY. Five teenaged students are kidnapped from their school bus and held for ransom by two men who have already killed old Mr. Godfrey, their regular bus driver.

• Sales Rank: #3248437 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Turtleback
• Published on: 1993-09-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: .69" h x 4.28" w x 6.94" l, .34 pounds
• Binding: School & Library Binding
• 176 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

From the Publisher
Five were missing--a terrifying ride into a nightmare!

In the beginning it's just another bus ride home from school. But the driver is a stranger . . .

From the Inside Flap
The lives of five captives hang in the balance while their families gather the ransom.
Two brothers, their family frantic to find their sons. A loner whose uncle doesn't even know he's missing. An Army brat whose family will never be able to raise enough money. And a cheerleader who can't count on her stepdad, but knows her father will come through.

About the Author
No Bio

No Bio

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Good book!!
By Pugmax88
So happy I was able to get this book for my daughter's book report! I remember my 5th grade teacher reading this to me & it captivated me! I hope it does the same for my 6th grader!

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Wonderful!
By A Customer
I know it is trite to say, "I couldn't put this book down," but I really couldn't. The author has a wonderful ability to end a chapter in such a way that the reader simply can't wait to find what the next chapter brings.
The story itself deals with a group of high school students who are kidnapped and held for (ta-daa) Ransom! The suspense in this story alone is enough for 5 stars, but what I found just as interesting was the way the five captives change, develop, and learn about themselves during their ordeal.
Lois Duncan is already one of my favorite young adult authors, and this book is the best of hers that I've read so far. Good for adults, too.

40 of 48 people found the following review helpful.
If you like action and suspense read Ransom
By A Customer
I read the book Ransom by Lois Duncan. I want to review it because it was very exciting and suspenseful. It is about a group of high-school teenagers that are from rich families. One ordinary Friday the kids got on their bus, but the bus driver wasn't the usual. The kids thought it was a substitute, but it actually was their kidnapper. The kids were taken up to the top of a mountain and held ransom. The kids go through hard times in a cabin in the winter. Do you think the high-school students can escape? You can find out by reading this book. I recommend this book because it has a strong plot, with well developed characters, but it gets to the action quick and the action lasts for the rest of the story. If you like suspenseful, action packed stories read Ransom by Lois Duncan.

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